Jayprog

The recent announcement by the Reserve bank of Zimbabwe governor Gideon Gono that the central bank could not account for Z$65 trillion out of the Z$67 trillion printed bearer cheques shows that there is something seriously wrong with the Zimbabwe accounting system at the central bank.

After a careful analysis of the figures it came to light that the shortage of cash was not mainly due to forex dealers as alleged but due to real economic causes. Imagine a country with inflation above 70 000% and street value exchange rate of 1USD: Z$2.5 million. This translates to a real value of USD 28.6 million running a country with a population of 15 million people. This translates to USD1.9 per citizen. 

Taking the above maths into the Zimbabwean economy, it means each citizen has a share value of Z$5 million and the good governor expects people to bank money that is not already sufficient for the citizenry alone. My calculations do not include companies and the government itself(a big spender).

The above analysis simply shows that the governor is fooling the nation and that he wants to blame people for the disappearance of his artificial money. The truth of the matter is that the Zimbabwean economy has a serious deficit of everything that one can imagine and money included.

Since the adjustment of all commodity prices to price as at July 18 2008, the prices have since gone up by more than 1000% against the same amount of money that was still in circulation as at 18 July 2008. As a result of this there is few money chasing very expensive goods and the money is bound to be a scarce commodity by simple economics since the products cannot be converted readily to cash.

The governor needs to abandon bush economics and let the market forces rule the economy. One way is to let the dollar free fall to the level that it settles on its true value against the major currencies. This setup will discourage speculation as the Zim dollar reflects true value. Another way would be allowing the introduction of other currencies into play to stabilise the rising inflation rate. This setup will easy money supply problems in the sense that the RBZ will not be tied to money supply since this will be from export earnings and other informal trade. The true value of forex is on a global index and the shift is not as astronomical as that of the Zim dollar.

In trying to find solutions to these problems, there are many noble ideas that come up but are not taken for selfish reasons that are not taken by politicians who want to profiteer from the system where there is a fixed exchange rate. It is worth to note that the majority of forex earned by the nation is accessed by politicians at 0.012 US cents per 1USD. This shows how lucrative the fixed exchange rate is for the politician.

The bottom line is to remove artificial money from the system to restore sense into the economy.

taxation is another thing that is making the economy go down. In real sense the private sector employees are the ones paying tax to pay the civil servants. The income tax reflected on the civil servants pay slips are artificial and as a results of many companies closing down and brain drain at its peak, the government is getting broke day by day.

No amount of talking and threats will solve the economic problem except facing the real issues. The recent introduction of a new breed of bearer cheques is sign that the system is failing, the central bank shelved the introduction of the   notes after realising that inflation was rising at a rate greater than printing the dollars. Very soon the paper on which the cheques are printed will run out and another disaster is looming. as I write this most Zimbabweans are angry because their holidays have been spoiled due to cash shortages all over the country.

Banks were busy issuing brand new $200 000 notes with RBZ ribbons and one wonders why this money is being issued when it is expiring in 9 days. it bring another thought, is the RBZ governor really serious about the whole exercise? Just like the price controls, it looks like the Price Control Task force has been disbanded. The use of bearer cheques can also continue beyond the deadline since there has not been any deposits coming to the banks anywhere. The new bearer cheques have an issue date of 1st July 2007 and no one knows why the good governor kept the whole bunch of the trading paper when people are suffering.

I think Ms. Jenni Williams  did not have her facts right. I watched her interview with BCC Hardtalk host Stephen Suckur and I realised Stehen did not do his usual type of questioning probably after realising that the interviewee was not really newsworthy.

During the interview she was confused and mixed issues, to the extend Stephen suggested she was more political than civic and would better join the opposition. Also her number-work was not all that good. She claimed WOZA's membership to be 50K and along the lines claimed that 150K of WOZA members were arrested.

I personally would not like put much critisism to the work of this organisation but I think the majority of the participants are opposition members whom Ms. Jenni Williams want to claim to be members of WOZA.

Woza is a small community grouping that has received wide publicity through vigorous public relation but lacks membership to be classified as a national grouping. 50K members out of a population of of 12 million Zimbabweans is just a drop in an ocean.

The problem with these mushrooming woman groups is that they are too noisy and lose focus quickly just like the Girl Child Network led by Betty Makoni. At one time Ms. Makoni claimed that she was also on the Central Intelligence (CIO) hit list . It only came to light recently when Ms Makoni and Rebeca Chisamba were picked up by the police for interfering with state witnesses (girls allegedly raped)

I think there is need to get facts right and promote an amicable working environment rather than politicizing issues when ever failure is imminent.

Zimbabweans are now suffering from a new culture of blaming the ruling Zanu PF for all their problems. I believe there are many things that can be done to improve the current situation rather than dwelling on blame.

When the Church becomes an enemy of the State, change is imminent.

 The recent ranting by the Zimbabwean leader about Catholic Bishops is just but a tip of the iceberg. Surely only the Devil can go against the Biblical principle and the old man wants to convince the world that he is the only logical person in a country with almost every worst case of statistic, 80% unemployment, 2200% inflation rate, etc.

It is so ironic that the Catholic becomes bad today considering that it helped Zanu Pf during the liberation struggle. Lest these people forget the simple fact that 'whatever bad things you do they surely will catch up with you' The reason why Catholic Bishops are vocal is because they are not so economic with the truth unlike Obadiah Musindo and his other band wagon who fear political leaders not knowing that God is the only Almighty.

 The problem with Zanu Pf as a system is that the leadership wants to substitute God and represent Him in Zimbabwe. If the Roman Catholic opposed Smith through Moto Magazine and now Zanu Pf, it simply shows that these two systems (Zanu Pf and UDI) are now one and the same thing - an impediment to democracy.

 Let the Bishops speak lest they will fall short before God for turning a blind eye to a system that brings suffering to the  children of God.

 As a Catholic the old man should learn to listen to his spiritual leaders. Gal 6:6-7 

The announcement by the Zimbabwe government to force importers of cars and luxury goods to pay duty in foreign currency proves the point that this government does not respect its own laws.

This announcement is going to have disastrous effects on the already ailing economy in the sense that there are going to be a reduced imports. The definition of luxury items is as per Zanu Pf thinking and it is surprising to me that Zimbabwe still considers food items such as cooking oil flour, rice and margarine to name a few as luxury goods. This in simple terms means Zanu Pf has devised mechanism to stop people from importing food since it will be expensive to pay duty in forex. As such, every Zimbabwean will have to depend on the government for food and this works well for the coming elections in 2008.
I have always haboured a sense that this Zimbabwe government is supported by a strong devil considering the way things happen when elections are due. There is always a drought, escalation of shortages, diseases etc that always work in favour of Zanu Pf.

Recently the same government was breathing fire to estate agents and home owners for demanding rentals in for-ex saying the legal tender was still the Zimbabwe dollar.

In honest sense no investor would want to risk their money in Zimbabwe were laws can be changed over night to suit the ruling party.

This is not a surprise move because as for me I now know the tricks that Zanu Pf uses whenever its leadership is desperate to sustain a lavish life styles.

This type of machination once happened after farm invasions when duty on all farming equipment was scrapped. This was done so that the big wigs could get equipment for their newly acquired farms. This however backfired as the EU imposed sanctions and they were left with SA and Asia as the only places to do business with.

The reason why duty has to be paid in forex now is to enable the big wigs to sell the large stock of vehicles that they bought during the past months when they were speculating that Gono would devalue the dollar.

Now that these gooks were stuck with stock they could not sell, they searched for a reason and solution and they found it. Every Tom and Dick was able to import a used car and pay a paltry duty of between Z$500 000 and 1mil. This was a direct threat to the 'shefs' in Zanu Pf.

In simple terms people are supposed to buy from the shefs and not compete with them. The introverts in Zanu Pf are now working hand in glove with the Reserve Bank govenor to propel austerity.

People have to realize that Zimbabwe is a tilting play-field with movable goal posts and as long as Zanu Pf is in control of the playfield you cannot win the game the rules change faster than the speed of play and by the time you think you are about to reach the goal post you are taken back several steps.
Zimbabwe is a country run by an oligarch geriatric gerrymander. The recent announcement to increase the constituencies proves this point and paves ways for nipping the birth of democracy in the bud.

I would rather stay a foreigner in a country that has leadership that respects freedom and the well being of its citizens and 'the other creatures as well.

Zimbabwe is a typical Stagflation and the major priority should be restoring investor confidence rather than scaring them. The government should delist vehicles as luxury considering the transport problems that the majority of Zimbabweans are facing.