29/03/2008

Zimbabwe Election Statistics

Just a little one. With 8,998 polling stations and a voting rate of 5 min/voter, this translates to 107, 796 voters per hour per booth per polling station.

Assuming that each polling station has 5 booths. It means 539,880 will vote across Zimbabwe in just one hour.
If the polling stations are to open for 10 hours then a total of 5,539,880 voters will cast their votes today if all goes well.This constitutes 93.35% of the registered voters.

From the above analysis it is possible to vote in one day.

The population of Zim is made up of the following;

FACTS

  1. Zimbabwe has a total of 5,934,768 registered voters from a population estimated at over 13 million.
  2. 15-64 years: 59.3% (male 3,663,108/female 3,641,519) Meaning approximately 54.5% of the Zimbawean population makes the effective political decision.
  3. Those in the age 50 and above make only 15% of the entire population (these are Zanu people in most cases).
  4. This leaves 85% of registered voters being the young effective generation badly hit by inflation and unemployment.

Analysis:

Zanu Pf will have to use other means to rig this elections because the numbers are not on their side this time. The election is complex in that it is a 4 in 1 event and kind of difficult to manage.

Overal Prediction

  1. Presindetial

        Zanu PF              36.8%

          MDC                     51.8%

          Makoni               10.2%

          Independent      0.57%

          Spoilled                0.63

House of Assembly and Senotorial

Zanu Pf may have seats close to 50% due to gerrimendering but the politics of numbers will ultimately make the decision. 

If the above scenario shifts a bit such that there is a run off, a tactic that Zanu Pf would want to employ on the pretext that they will gain Mkaoni's votes, MDC would still win as Makoni's voters would rather vote for the opposition.

Matebeleland holds the key to tis election and Zanu Pf has little support there. 

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Comments

you are way off the mark. keep my comment and compare it with the final result.

zanu pf 53%
MDC mt 38%
makoni 8%

the fractions of the remaining 1% is for all the 4 candidates.

why?

most of the 18-40 age group will either fail to vote coz they are not registered or are not interested. more than a 1/4 of them vote zanu pf anyway.

Posted by: zvechokwadi | 29/03/2008

Lets watch the match and compare the predictions

Posted by: simba | 29/03/2008

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